Saturday, January 17, 2026
For decades, Africa has been labelled a continent of potential. While hopeful, this phrase often conceals a deeper reality of delayed progress, structural dependence, and underachievement. Today, as the global economic landscape becomes increasingly turbulent (characterized by trade wars, eroding preferential regimes, and the emergence of a multipolar world), the key question is no longer if Africa will rise, but: “how?”. This was the central theme of a panel discussion held on 21 August 2025 in Mauritius, hosted by the Stellenbosch Business School Alumni Association (Mauritius Chapter) and The Mauritius Commercial Bank (MCB). The event explored Africa’s position in the age of “Trump-onomics”: a term used to describe the resurgence of economic nationalism, protectionism, and shifting global alliances reshaping the international trade system.
A key takeaway from the discussions was the urgent need for Africa to move beyond a reactive stance and begin actively shaping its own destiny. Several panelists emphasized the importance of reframing Africa's role in the global economy: from a passive recipient of aid and investment to a dynamic hub of production, innovation, and value creation.
Achieving this transformation requires coordinated action on three interconnected fronts:
Global Trade Realignment: Risks and Realities
Trade data presented during the event underscored a striking transformation in Africa’s external trade relationships. Over the past two decades, U.S. imports from Africa have fallen dramatically: from 36% to just 6%, reflecting a steady decline in the continent’s share of U.S. goods trade. In contrast, China has surged to become Africa’s largest trading partner, with total bilateral trade reaching USD 295 billion in 2024. However, this growing engagement remains heavily imbalanced, as Africa continues to export primarily raw materials while importing mostly manufactured goods, reinforcing structural dependency.
On a different front, it is important to note that according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), U.S. services exports to Africa reached $19.2 billion in 2024, with an 11.4% increase from 2023. This marks a sustained upward trend in services exports over the past five years (see Table 1 below) which signals a strategic shift in U.S. trade engagement with the continent: from goods to services.
Table 1: U.S. services export to Africa (2021-2024)
Source: YCharts, based on data sourced from U.S.T.R. reports
Unlike manufactured exports, service sectors such as consulting, finance, education, and digital technology (where the U.S. maintains strong global competitiveness), are outside the scope of AGOA. This evolving trade pattern helps explain the United States’ waning interest in renewing this unilateral tariff concession scheme, which primarily supports duty-free access for African goods, notably textiles, apparel, and some agricultural products. Many of these sectors have seen a decline in global competitiveness, and their share in total U.S. imports is now relatively small. As a result, U.S. policymakers may view AGOA as increasingly outdated and misaligned with today’s trade realities. With the U.S. economic engagement in Africa now more focused on services, digital infrastructure, and knowledge-based industries, there is less incentive to maintain preferential access mechanisms that no longer reflect the U.S. interests.
The Hidden Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Africa
While Africa is not the direct target of recent U.S. tariffs, the indirect effects of the new American trade policy could be even more significant. Apart from the contraction of exports to the U.S. due to the increase in the price of African goods, other key risks that are lesss debated include:
1. Exclusion from Global Value Chains (GVCs): African countries that supply raw materials or intermediate goods for products ultimately sold in the U.S. risk being sidelined from global value chains if international firms redirect their sourcing to avoid new tariffs. For example, Lesotho and Kenya, which play key roles in apparel manufacturing, or mineral-rich countries that export lithium and cobalt for use in electronics and electric vehicles, could face production slowdowns, factory closures, and reduced foreign investment as demand shifts elsewhere.
2. Decline in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Rising trade uncertainty may discourage multinational companies from investing in African production zones closely tied to U.S. markets. This is particularly true for textile hubs and special economic zones (SEZs) in countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya, which heavily rely on exports to the United States. Several African governments have already expressed concern about the potential impact of this shift, warning that reduced investor confidence could undermine industrial growth and job creation in key export-oriented sectors, as described here.
3. Commodity and Currency Volatility: Tariff-driven instability may depress prices for key African exports (such as oil, minerals, and agricultural goods) while weakening local currencies, further pushing up inflation, and increasing borrowing costs across the continent.
Strategic Reorientation: A Regional and Global Pivot
To counter these risks, African countries are increasingly turning inward, looking to strengthen intra-African trade through AfCFTA. However, this path is not without obstacles: low intra-African demand and limited product diversification remain major hurdles. This is why in parallel, Africa must diversify its export markets, targeting emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, while accelerating industrialization to reduce overreliance on raw commodity exports and U.S.-linked value chains.
From Vision to Action: Building a Resilient Africa
The road ahead demands coordinated and strategic action. Africa’s response must focus on:
These priorities are not optional: they are essential if Africa is to build an economy that is resilient to external shocks and capable of generating inclusive, sustainable growth.
Conclusion: Ending the Era of Potential
To change this narrative, Africa must begin to act (and be seen) as a continent of performance. This transformation will require more than just ambition. It calls for strong political will, policy consistency, respect for regional and sub-regional trade commitments, and bold structural reforms. The good news is that the foundations are already in place: a young and dynamic population, rapid digital adoption, and growing momentum behind the AfCFTA. But to truly seize this moment, Africa must redefine its global identity: not as the continent of tomorrow, but as a decisive player today. The era of potential is over. The era of progress must begin.
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