Despite Trade Tensions, Global Supply Chains Hold Firm... With Sub-Saharan Africa Showing the Highest Gains

According to the October special update of the 2025 Global Connectedness Tracker produced by DHL and the NYU Stern School of Business, global supply chains have remained remarkably stable despite tariffs, geopolitical frictions, and rising protectionism since the start of 2025. The report finds no significant shift from international to domestic business activity—a clear indication that companies and countries are adapting to global risks rather than retreating from globalization.

International trade has shown surprising resilience in 2025, even amid heightened policy uncertainty and U.S. tariffs rising to their highest levels since the 1930s. During the first half of the year, global trade volumes recorded their fastest half-year growth since 2010 (excluding the volatile 2020–21 pandemic period). U.S. imports surged early in the year as buyers stockpiled goods ahead of tariff increases, while China’s diversification of exports—away from the U.S. and toward Asia, Africa, and Europe—has helped the country to maintain a stable export growth and sustain global trade momentum.

Sub-Saharan Africa emerged as a standout performer, recording a 9.6% increase in trade value (in current U.S. dollars) in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This suggests that Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade activity expanded faster than the global average, which is particularly notable amid global trade tensions and tariff hikes.

The DHL forecast projects moderate but steady trade growth through 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.5%, consistent with the past decade’s trend. North America faces the sharpest downgrade in its trade outlook due to higher tariffs, while South and Central Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East are expected to achieve the strongest gains.

Despite widespread expectations of “nearshoring” and regionalization, average global trade distances reached a record 3,045 miles in early 2025, showing that supply chains remain widely dispersed. Mexico stands out as a mixed case: its exports are becoming increasingly regionalized toward the U.S. and Canada, while its imports are diversifying to include a broader range of global suppliers.

Overall, the report concludes that globalization is not reversing, but only adapting to a more complex and politically fragmented world economy.