New PAFTRAC survey reveals that AfCFTA is advancing by necessity, not by policy

The 2025 PAFTRAC Africa CEO Trade Survey Report reveals that amid the US protectionist tariffs and disrupted shipping routes, Africa’s top executives are increasingly turning their attention to intra-continental opportunities. The survey’s key message is that global fragmentation is accelerating continental integration, that Africa needs to trade more with itself to build resilience and reduce dependence on volatile external markets. The same shocks that threaten Africa’s access to traditional markets—uncertainty over AGOA renewal and the US’s shifting tariff policies—are strengthening the belief that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is the continent’s most important option and vital economic safeguard.

PAFTRAC is the acronym of Pan-African Private Sector Trade and Investment Committee, an advocacy platform bringing together stakeholders from both the public and private sector that formulate policy recommendations aimed at improving trade and investment flows across the continent. Every year PAFTRAC issues a report where it describes the perceptions of African Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) about the future economic outlook of the continent based on specific surveys. We commented the previous PAFTRAC report (2024) here.

What is new in the 2025 report is that African CEOs overwhelmingly see the AfCFTA not anymore as an opportunity for growth, but as a tool for trade protection and resilience. A striking 95% of respondents rates the AfCFTA as “important” to “extremely important” for safeguarding Africa’s trade interests, with nearly half labeling it “extremely important”. This reflects a shift from optimism about the AfCFTA’s potential to a widespread acknowledgment of its necessity.

The report supports this strategic pivot with data: Intra-African trade rebounded sharply in 2024, growing 12.4% to $220.3 billion (Afreximbank data). Yet, claims in the report that this growth proves the AfCFTA’s vision is becoming reality are overstated. In reality, the report neglects the fact that much of the increase reflects recovery from past crises, like COVID-19 or the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Moreover, intra-African trade remains relatively limited, largely confined to the AfCFTA Guided Trade Initiative. These figures certainly do not demonstrate that the AfCFTA is broadly effective across the continent.

Nonetheless, the survey shows encouraging trends: nearly 40% of surveyed companies now export within Africa, far exceeding exports to Europe (16.5%) or North America (10.2%). This shift is likely driven by instability in traditional Western markets, prompting African businesses to seek stability and new opportunities within the continent.

Geopolitical uncertainty is also encouraging African firms to explore new partners. Over 30% of respondents already trade with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, while 41.4% are interested in future engagement, positioning the Gulf as a key emerging trade ally that is gaining influence in Africa, overshadowing traditional partners.

Africa’s export profile is also evolving. Africa’s export profile is shifting toward a service-driven economy, confirm the particular dynamism of this sector in Africa. According to the respondents to the survey, services represented the largest share of exports (45.9%), surpassing agricultural products (28.7%).

Additionally, the survey highlights for the first time a strong consensus on the importance of digitization. Surveyed CEOs reported that they are quickly adopting digital payment systems, such as PAPSS, to boost their companies’ competitiveness.

The data shows that the AfCFTA is advancing not by policy, but by necessity. The private sector is actively embracing regional trade to reduce external risk, underscoring the urgency for governments to finalize Rules of Origin and fully implement digital and payment mechanisms such as PAPSS. The era of relying on external preference schemes is ending; the era of self-reliance, driven by integrated African markets, has begun.