Which Path for Africa in a Multipolar Trade Era?

A new report from Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) Center for Geopolitics, released ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, highlights accelerating momentum toward a “multi-pole trade patchwork” world order. Rather than a unified multilateral system—or a descent into outright protectionism—global trade is reorganizing around four distinct poles: the United States, China, BRICS+, and a group of economies defined as Plurilateralists, committed to deeper rules-based trade cooperation. Each pole increasingly operates under its own trade rules, priorities, and alliances.

Trade geography is being fundamentally redrawn, according to the BCG report. Plurilateralist economies—including the European Union, EFTA members, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the UK, and smaller free-trading countries such as Costa Rica and Morocco—are expected to see above-average trade growth among themselves and with much of the Global South, as shown in the map below. On the other hand, China is deepening its ties with BRICS+ and developing economies, while the U.S. share of global goods trade gradually declines as it focuses on domestic production and strategic autonomy.

Although Africa is mostly outside these major poles, the continent is grouped with other Global South “free agents” that must navigate between competing centers of influence. This fragmentation offers both risks and opportunities. Risks include higher costs from shifting tariffs, exposure to regulatory divergence, and continued dependence on commodity exports, while opportunities arise from expanding South–South corridors, particularly with China and Plurilateralist economies, which could support higher trade growth, on condition that Africa invests in value addition, industrialization, and strategic partnerships.

BCG emphasizes that geopolitical fragmentation—rising industrial policies, selective engagement with trade norms, and divergent regulatory frameworks—will reshape supply chains and market access. To succeed, African governments and businesses must strategically position themselves, balancing ties between poles, strengthening supply-chain resilience, pursuing industrial upgrading, and capturing higher value rather than remaining primarily raw-material suppliers.

In conclusion, the report suggests that Africa’s future influence and prosperity in a fragmented global trade landscape will rely less on simply participating in international markets and more on actively engaging with multiple trade centers, forging strategic partnerships, and advancing industrial development. The continent has the potential to thrive, but only if it adapts to fragmentation rather than being marginalized by it.