When Champions Don’t Reap the Rewards: Strong Sectors do not Always Equate to Strong Results

Fifteen years after the East African Community (EAC) introduced its Common Market Protocol to allow free movement of people, goods, and services, tourism growth in the region has been uneven. In 2024, Kenya recorded 2.4 million international arrivals, a 15% increase from 2023-a new record. Tourism earnings also hit KSh 452.2 billion (about $3.5 billion USD), up nearly 20% from the previous year. Many visitors preferred other African countries, such Uganda and Tanzania. Indeed, these large numbers don't mean Kenya is growing faster than its neighbors.

Tanzania for instance recorded over 2.66 million international arrivals in 2024, up 20% from the previous year and an increase by 89 percent to around 1.2 million visitors per year since 2020, as revealed in a recent study mentioned in this article. Uganda and Rwanda are also bouncing back strongly, with visitor numbers and spending reaching or exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

This shows that in Kenya (who championed the EAC Common Market Protocol and is one of the largest tourism markets in the region), tourism growth is slower relative to its size and compared to neighbors.

The Role of Travel Authorization and Border Rules

Apart from the cost of travel and living (accommodation, meals, and attractions in Kenya are higher compared to neighbors like Uganda, Rwanda, or Tanzania), which can make the country less attractive to regional travelers, especially middle-class East Africans, another reason for slower relative growth may be the introduction of the travel authorization and cumbersome border procedures. In January 2024, Kenya introduced an Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) to replace the previous visa system, whic in 2025 was removed for most African visitors to simplify travel. This rapid switch between tourist visas, ETA, and visa-free approaches, seems to have reduced predictability, making travel seem complicated for regional visitors. The result is that although Kenya ranks now high on the Africa Visa Openness Index, frenetic changes in visa rules still limit the growth of visitors, especially when compared with its neighbors. This illustrates that, even when well-intentioned, travel policies can create confusion or friction for visitors, particularly when rules are unpredictable.

Why the Numbers Can Be Confusing

However, different reports and time periods give different pictures. Recent government data focus on rebound figures (e.g., 2023-2024 arrivals and revenues). Older studies compare decade averages (2010-2019 vs. 2010-2024) and may understate growth, especially if early years were stagnant or affected by the pandemic. Third-party sources sometimes count "visitors" differently, including business travel or transit.

So, both "22% growth since 2010" and record arrivals in 2024 can be technically correct. They just tell different stories. For EAC comparisons, relative growth and ease of travel matter more than absolute numbers.

What This Means for Kenya and the EAC

Kenya’s tourism sector has rebounded strongly post-pandemic, demonstrating resilience and capacity for growth. Yet, relative to the size of its already large tourism market, some neighboring countries have achieved faster growth and made cross-border travel easier for regional visitors.

Frequent changes in travel authorization and visa rules have likely slowed Kenya’s tourism growth relative to its neighbors, showing that administrative hurdles can act as invisible barriers. Even a country with a strong tourism sector can be held back if policies are poorly implemented, proving that how rules are applied is just as important as the rules themselves.