Afrobarometer survey shows that the desire for trade liberalization is stronger in African autocracies than in democracies

A new Afrobarometer survey conducted in 34 African countries analyses in which measure foreign policies adopted by African governments match the preferences of their constituents on issues related to free movement of persons and free trade. The survey explores the perceptions of African citizens’ in relation to two areas that are crucial for the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which focuses exactly on the free movement of goods and people for the creation of a single African market.

Afrobarometer’s research results show that in most African States, citizens are quite sceptic on the benefits of free trade, compared to their governments, which are more optimistic. Conversely, on free movement of persons, it is the opposite. African constituents deem that what their governments have achieved so far is not enough. Hence, they would like more liberalization in this area. What is even more surprising is that in autocratic states the propensity towards trade openness is greater than in democracies.

While the issues of free trade and free movement are closely intertwined, these findings do not necessarily suggest that Africans, particularly in full-fledged democracies, support protectionism more than liberalization. They just show a general misalignment between the perceptions of the benefits of free trade and free movement between citizens and the institutions governing them. In the case of free trade, it could be a communication problem: citizens may not be aware of the benefits that a growing liberalization of markets in Africa can bring to the general population. In this case there would be an information gap to fill. Conversely, with regard to the movement of person, it seems clear that results achieved so far by African States are not considered satisfactory. Due to this misalignment in perceptions between citizens and the state, there is a general feeling of frustration with the policies adopted by African governments and the African Union in these two particular areas.

Afrobarometer admits that further research is needed to delve deeper into the causes of disaffection with these policies and to analyse in more detail the reasons for the lack of alignment in relation to the foreign policy choices adopted by African governments.

The underliying question remains: does public opinion drive foreign policy or vice versa? In democratic systems, governments derive their legitimacy from the consent of the governed. Ignoring public opinion on significant foreign policy issues can undermine this legitimacy and lead to a disconnect between the state and its citizens. Vice versa, foreign policies that enjoy broad public support are more likely to be sustained over time, even through changes in government. Policies opposed by a significant portion of the public generally face resistance and are more difficult to implement effectively. And this is a key issue to take into account into the ongoing AfCFTA implementation efforts...