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Study from KIPPRA shows that Kenya will suffer from the AfCFTA implementation

A study conducted by the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) in 2023 by using an economic modelling tool which has been published only today, shows that the tariff liberalization programme established by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) will lead to a substantial decline in tariff revenue for Kenya, with an average potential loss of KSH 22.53 billion (about 178 million USD), much more of the advantages that the agreement will give to the country. A premise is necessary. Economic modelling tools, even the most rigorous ones, look today like slot machines, where after you put the money in and pull down the lever, the win is never sure (for the simple reason that mathematical formulas cannot encompass all the variables that can determine an economic result, with their infinite combinations). However, the alarm raised by the study is quite is worring. The good news is that Kenyan exports are expected to expand particularly in countries with which it has no trade agreements in place, differently from imports, that will increase marginally, only of about 0.1 per cent.

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The African dilemma: protectionisms vs free trade

The creation of the single African market under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) seems it will not be so smooth and quick as anyone expects. Also after the ratification of the AfCFTA and the commitment to eliminate customs duties and non-tariff barriers in their respective trade exchanges, African countries continue to embark in trade skirmishes. This time the protagonists are Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The two countries have entered in trade frictions that ultimately have led to the closure of their common border. These frictions started on 26 June, when the Ministry of Trade in DRC issued two decrees introducing a 12-month ban: one on the import of beers and soft drinks, the second on the import of gray cements and clinkers. The introduction of these measures has been motivated with the need to protect the local industry and encourage the production of these goods in the DRC. But the import ban of beers and soft drinks has provoked the reaction of Zambian authorities, as the country exports considerable quantities of such products to the DRC, and considers them as an important source of forex inflows. As a consequence, a decision was taken on Saturday 10 August to close the border with DRC. At the moment there is no trade among the two countries because of this closure, despite both countries have engaged in urgent talks to reopen the border and restore trade.

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Africa must focus on vertical industrialization policies to grow

An interesting article published by the Africa Policy Research Institute (APRI) highlights the importance for Africa to promote industrialization through appropriate “vertical” industrialization policies. The Made in China 2025 strategy, one of the most important industrialization policies adopted by the Asian giant to promote the development of a local manufacturing industry, notes that “Since the beginning of industrial civilization … the history of the rise and fall of world powers … has repeatedly proved that without a strong manufacturing industry, there will be no country and no nation”. Accordingly, the document raises the importance to develop an internationally competitive manufacturing industry as the only way for China to enhance its comprehensive national strength, ensure national security, and become a world power.

And in Africa? ... Read more on our blog

Mauritius launches Business Link to facilitate matchmaking between local suppliers and buyers

In January 2024 Mauritius was rated by Forbes Africa as the most innovative African country and the one having the most favorable business climate on the continent. Over time, the country has been capable to develop a diversified economy shifting away from its historical reliance on sugar cane monoculture. Despite the small size of its territory, today Mauritius has a well-developed manufacturing sector, a favorable tax system and a network of Free Trade Agreements and Double Taxation Avoidance Agreements (DTAA) with third countries that attract foreign investors from every part of Africa and the rest of the world. Mauritius is also the country in Africa with the most favorable most favored nation (MFN) customs duty rates (less than 1 percent average) and a particularly open trade policy. The UNCTAD report  “Rethinking the Foundations of Export Diversification in Africa” (2022), noted that Mauritius is one of the countries in Africa with the most diversified economies. Its export baskets counts 3,034 products (tariff lines) being sold abroad. These characteristics have favored the development in the island of a strong offshore financial sector, becoming one of biggest and most respected international financial centers.

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UNCTAD Digital Economy Report 2024 sees strong potential for data centre development in Africa... but at some conditions

The 2024 edition of the UNCTAD Digital Economy Report (Shaping an environmentally sustainable and inclusive digital future), notes that developing countries that are investing in digitalization are reaping relatively few benefits, as the costs in which they incur for deploying digital technologies are still higher than the benefits they receive from their utilization. In fact, the report notes, if on one hand these countries are becoming avid importers of technology, on the other hand the digital services they export are still limited. Moreover, exports of electronic waste still are mainly directed to these countries, which obviously has an environmental impact. Digital technologies, notes the report, are also energy and water intensive, whose costs are generally high in developing countries. Energy is needed for running them, while water is used for cooling purposes. Data centers, for instance, particularly hyperscale ones, generate a substantial amount of heat, and effective cooling is needed to ensure uninterrupted operation. Electronic waste (e-waste) instead, refers to all types of electrical and electronic equipment and its parts that have been discarded by the owner as waste without the intention of reuse. Africa is a main destination of such type of waste, as shown in the map below, while Western and Southern Africa are the only African regions that export e-waste outside the continent.

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