A study conducted by the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) in 2023 by using an economic modelling tool which has been published only today, shows that the tariff liberalization programme established by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) will lead to a substantial decline in tariff revenue for Kenya, with an average potential loss of KSH 22.53 billion (about 178 million USD), much more of the advantages that the agreement will give to the country. A premise is necessary. Economic modelling tools, even the most rigorous ones, look today like slot machines, where after you put the money in and pull down the lever, the win is never sure (for the simple reason that mathematical formulas cannot encompass all the variables that can determine an economic result, with their infinite combinations). However, the alarm raised by the study is quite is worring. The good news is that Kenyan exports are expected to expand particularly in countries with which it has no trade agreements in place, differently from imports, that will increase marginally, only of about 0.1 per cent.