In Africa, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has taken an almost a religious turn. Leaders, policymakers, economists, and business associations hail it as the ultimate key to unlocking intra-African trade, spurring industrialization, and attracting massive investment. With 55 countries and a market of 1.4 billion people, the AfCFTA's potential is indeed immense. The enthusiasm is palpable: I have seen people more excited about the AfCFTA than at the sight of a beautiful woman, and even met individuals including the title "AfCFTA evangelist", "AfCFTA enthusiast" or "AfCFTA advocate" on their resumés and business cards (I wonder why no one has ever thought to "AfCFTA-fanatic" or "AfCFTA-possessed"). One can easily picture them preaching at dusty border posts: "Reduce tariffs! Harmonize rules! Dismantle non-tariff barriers!"

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At the Djibouti Investment Forum in April this year, we highlighted an emerging trend: economies in the Global North are strategically reorienting their trade and supply chain links toward the Global South. This shift is driven by both economic and geopolitical considerations, aiming to reduce dependence on a limited number of major partners, particularly the United States, following recent increases in tariffs on imports from third countries. While our theory has been initially debated, this trend has now become increasingly evident. However, this reorientation is also a source of risks for the Global South. While Northern economies seek secure access to essential raw materials and energy critical for their green and digital transitions, poorly structured trade agreements can reinforce asymmetric dependencies. In such scenarios, countries in the Global South could continue to supply raw materials while receiving limited opportunities for high-value manufacturing or technological investment, becoming the sacrificial lambs of these shifts.

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