New World Trade Report 2023: is the old bipolar/unipolar trade system coming to an end?

The World Trade Report is an annual publication issued from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) that aims to deepen understanding about trends in trade, trade policy issues and the multilateral trading system. The new edition, just released, highlights a phenomenon that is happening at global level: the realignment of geopolitical power. It argues that globalization has led to the emergence of new powerful economic actors that are disrupting the old international order and shifting the global balance of power, unleashing enormous geopolitical and geo-economic shockwaves.

Citing the concept of the  “rise of the rest” of Fareed Zakaria, the report notes that although advanced economies (the ‘old powers’) remain the key players in international trade, their role is no longer dominant like it used to be in the past, being new economies, also small, becoming increasingly protagonists on the international scene. The report recognizes that fast-emerging economies in Asia, Africa and South America play today a role in the system that was unimaginable just 20 years ago. This is witnessed by a series of phenomena such as the current trend of formation of new trade alliances between developing economies (ex. the recent expansion of the BRICS bloc), the extended participation of such economies to powerful clubs of nations (ex., the inclusion of the African Union in the G20 as a permanent member), and the emergence of hegemons in regional trade blocks driving regional integration processes or exerting a strong pull over political and economic affairs in other states (a phenomenon that also Africa experienced).

The world is becoming increasingly multi-polar and economies are more interdependent on each other in terms of trade. Because of these characteristics, this world will become particularly complex to coordinate, making the role of the WTO more important than ever in the future ...provided that this organisation will be able to maintain its ability to level the playing field between old and new players in international trade. Which is no easy task.