This study, conducted for the Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI) challenges conventional thinking on African integration. Over the past decades, multiple regional integration initiatives have led to a proliferation of institutional frameworks and complex governance structures, often with overlapping responsibilities. Yet progress in regional integration has been modest, as deep political, economic, and institutional divergences among African states have frequently slowed, diluted, or even reversed formally agreed commitments.
These dynamics are reinforced by push-pull dynamics where less-developed economies tend to approach integration cautiously, concerned about revenue losses, exposure to stronger competitors, and limited adjustment capacity, while relatively wealthier and more diversified economies push integration forward, confident in their ability to absorb short-term shocks. This imbalance produces a persistent gap between formal commitments and on-the-ground implementation. Under these circumstances, the traditional linear model of regional integration (progressing sequentially from Free Trade Areas to Customs Unions, Common Markets, Monetary Unions, and ultimately Political Unions), fails to capture the realities of Africa. Evidence presented in this paper indicates that African countries are increasingly adopting flexible, non-linear approaches that prioritize pragmatic cooperation, sector-specific initiatives, and corridor-based integration. These strategies are carefully designed to address concrete, context-specific priorities that extend beyond trade and development needs, encompassing infrastructure, security, monetary stability and other national and regional objectives.
The paper concludes that, despite expanding institutional frameworks, tangible economic integration remains limited: a paradox with significant implications for regional development, AfCFTA implementation, and the creation of competitive regional value chains. Africa’s path to deeper integration, therefore, does not lie in rigid, externally imported models but in adaptive, context-sensitive approaches that deliver measurable results. Based on this analysis, the paper advances concrete recommendations at continental, regional, and national levels to enable flexible integration pathways to emerge and consolidate organically.
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