News

From Aid to Assets: Why Private Saving Is Central to Africa’s Growth and Industrialization

Monday, 05 January 2026 08:43

The persistent shortfall in domestic savings is one of the most binding structural constraints on Africa’s long-term growth and economic transformation. Sub-Saharan Africa consistently records savings rates well below those of other developing regions, with trends that have stagnated (or even declined) over time. A recent study prepared by the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research—(UNU-WIDER) underscores that this weakness is not a temporary macroeconomic imbalance, but the outcome of deeper structural, demographic, and institutional constraints that limit Africa’s ability to finance its own development.

When Insecurity Redraws Trade Routes: Nadapal and the Political Economy of Borders in East Africa

Saturday, 03 January 2026 06:57

Borders do not only channel trade: they also redirect it when security collapses. Few places illustrate this dynamic better than Nadapal, a remote but strategic border post between Kenya and South Sudan. In principle, Nadapal should serve as a key gateway linking South Sudan to Kenya through the Eldoret–Kitale–Lodwar–Kapoeta–Juba corridor. This 945 km route forms part of broader regional integration efforts aimed to connect the Port of Mombasa to landlocked countries in East Africa. Kenya has secured African Development Bank (AfDB) financing to upgrade key sections of the corridor on its side, particularly Lesseru–Kitale and Morpus–Lokichar. On the South Sudan side, however, the road remains mostly unpaved, as border disputes and political gridlock over demarcation have stalled construction. As a result, persistent insecurity has turned Nadapal into a choke point, forcing traders to detour hundreds of kilometres through Uganda via the Nimule border post. In future, Nadapal is expected to link to the planned LAPSSET Corridor from Lamu Port, giving South Sudan more direct access to the Indian Ocean. These plans further underscore the strategic importance of this gateway.

Informal Solutions to Formal Barriers: Re-evaluating Intra-African Trade through the Lens of the Shadow Economy

Tuesday, 30 December 2025 08:53

Conventional analyses of African trade frequently highlight how low formal intra-regional trade volumes signify a significant economic integration deficit. This paper challenges that narrative, arguing that this conclusion largely obscures a substantial redirection of economic activity into the informal sector. Pervasive non-tariff barriers, combined with protectionist policies and excessively complex regulatory environments, create a powerful disincentive for formal trade, pushing economic operators to seek informal channels for market access. Drawing an analogy to fluid dynamics, economic activity is inherently adaptive, always seeking easier routes when confronted with formal obstacles. Despite this conceptual framework, a significant gap exists in current economic research. Quantitative studies are lacking that demonstrate a link between the frequency and severity of protectionist actions, regulatory burdens and trade barriers and measurable shift of formal trade into the informal economy. Filling this research gap is crucial for developing more effective policies aimed at promoting the formalization of intra-African trade. Read our research paper on the International Journal of African Studies.

The Dawn of African Geoeconomics: Towards the Strategic Integration of Trade, Development, and Diplomacy

Monday, 29 December 2025 09:12

Across Africa, the wall between economics and diplomacy is slowly crumbling. Trade and development policies are no longer guided solely by purely economic considerations. Governments are increasingly combining economic and foreign policy functions, signaling a shift from purely technical management toward strategic economic governance, in which trade, investment, and development policies are deliberately used to advance national, regional and international objectives.

On our blog.

Africa at a Turning Point: Growth Momentum in a Fragmented Global Economy

Sunday, 28 December 2025 06:29

The African economy stands at a pivotal juncture, according to the UNCTAD Trade and Development Report 2025. While the continent continues to display a measure of resilience and growth momentum, it remains highly exposed to global geoeconomic shocks and persistent financial constraints. Africa’s contribution to global economic growth is estimated to have increased to approximately 4.6 per cent in 2025, up from 3.6 per cent in 2024, with projections suggesting a further rise to 5.2 per cent by 2026. Despite this positive trajectory, Africa’s contribution remains among the lowest of all world regions, exceeding only that of Oceania. In terms of real GDP growth, the continent is projected to expand by about 3.7 per cent in 2025, rising modestly to 4.1 per cent in 2026. At that level, Africa would marginally outperform Asia, where growth is forecast at around 3.9 per cent in the same year.