At the Djibouti Investment Forum in April this year, we highlighted an emerging trend: economies in the Global North are strategically reorienting their trade and supply chain links toward the Global South. This shift is driven by both economic and geopolitical considerations, aiming to reduce dependence on a limited number of major partners, particularly the United States, following recent increases in tariffs on imports from third countries. While our theory has been initially debated, this trend has now become increasingly evident. However, this reorientation is also a source of risks for the Global South. While Northern economies seek secure access to essential raw materials and energy critical for their green and digital transitions, poorly structured trade agreements can reinforce asymmetric dependencies. In such scenarios, countries in the Global South could continue to supply raw materials while receiving limited opportunities for high-value manufacturing or technological investment, becoming the sacrificial lambs of these shifts.

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A recent study published by the Policy Centre for the New South underscores the urgent need for Africa to move beyond traditional development models and instead harness its strategic assets to drive growth. The study highlighs that due to persistent structural vulnerabilities and a decline in international aid flows Africa is not on track to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) or the objectives outlined in Agenda 2063. In response, the author calls for a profound rethinking of development strategies, emphasizing that Africa’s growth should capitalize on three transformative transitions: digital, energy, and demographic. Each of these transitions offers significant opportunities if properly managed. For instance, the demographic transition could serve as a powerful engine of growth through a dynamic labor force, while the energy transition creates opportunities to establish green energy corridors that align with global sustainability goals.

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