A study conducted by the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA) in 2023 by using an economic modelling tool which has been published only today, shows that the tariff liberalization programme established by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) will lead to a substantial decline in tariff revenue for Kenya, with an average potential loss of KSH 22.53 billion (about 178 million USD), much more of the advantages that the agreement will give to the country. A premise is necessary. Economic modelling tools, even the most rigorous ones, look today like slot machines, where after you put the money in and pull down the lever, the win is never sure (for the simple reason that mathematical formulas cannot encompass all the variables that can determine an economic result, with their infinite combinations). However, the alarm raised by the study is quite is worring. The good news is that Kenyan exports are expected to expand particularly in countries with which it has no trade agreements in place, differently from imports, that will increase marginally, only of about 0.1 per cent.

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The creation of the single African market under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) seems it will not be so smooth and quick as anyone expects. Also after the ratification of the AfCFTA and the commitment to eliminate customs duties and non-tariff barriers in their respective trade exchanges, African countries continue to embark in trade skirmishes. This time the protagonists are Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The two countries have entered in trade frictions that ultimately have led to the closure of their common border. These frictions started on 26 June, when the Ministry of Trade in DRC issued two decrees introducing a 12-month ban: one on the import of beers and soft drinks, the second on the import of gray cements and clinkers. The introduction of these measures has been motivated with the need to protect the local industry and encourage the production of these goods in the DRC. But the import ban of beers and soft drinks has provoked the reaction of Zambian authorities, as the country exports considerable quantities of such products to the DRC, and considers them as an important source of forex inflows. As a consequence, a decision was taken on Saturday 10 August to close the border with DRC. At the moment there is no trade among the two countries because of this closure, despite both countries have engaged in urgent talks to reopen the border and restore trade.

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