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AfCFTA Preachers and the Gospel of Free Trade

Saturday, 27 September 2025 03:50

In Africa, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has taken an almost a religious turn. Leaders, policymakers, economists, and business associations hail it as the ultimate key to unlocking intra-African trade, spurring industrialization, and attracting massive investment. With 55 countries and a market of 1.4 billion people, the AfCFTA's potential is indeed immense. The enthusiasm is palpable: I have seen people more excited about the AfCFTA than at the sight of a beautiful woman, and even met individuals including the title "AfCFTA evangelist", "AfCFTA enthusiast" or "AfCFTA advocate" on their resumés and business cards (I wonder why no one has ever thought to "AfCFTA-fanatic" or "AfCFTA-possessed"). One can easily picture them preaching at dusty border posts: "Reduce tariffs! Harmonize rules! Dismantle non-tariff barriers!"

The Global Order Is Changing: Who Will Lead and Who Will Follow?

Tuesday, 23 September 2025 08:13

At the Djibouti Investment Forum in April this year, we highlighted an emerging trend: economies in the Global North are strategically reorienting their trade and supply chain links toward the Global South. This shift is driven by both economic and geopolitical considerations, aiming to reduce dependence on a limited number of major partners, particularly the United States, following recent increases in tariffs on imports from third countries. While our theory has been initially debated, this trend has now become increasingly evident. However, this reorientation is also a source of risks for the Global South. While Northern economies seek secure access to essential raw materials and energy critical for their green and digital transitions, poorly structured trade agreements can reinforce asymmetric dependencies. In such scenarios, countries in the Global South could continue to supply raw materials while receiving limited opportunities for high-value manufacturing or technological investment, becoming the sacrificial lambs of these shifts.

Can a Project-Based Approach Unlock Africa’s Development and Integration?

Monday, 22 September 2025 15:15

A recent study published by the Policy Centre for the New South underscores the urgent need for Africa to move beyond traditional development models and instead harness its strategic assets to drive growth. The study highlighs that due to persistent structural vulnerabilities and a decline in international aid flows Africa is not on track to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) or the objectives outlined in Agenda 2063. In response, the author calls for a profound rethinking of development strategies, emphasizing that Africa’s growth should capitalize on three transformative transitions: digital, energy, and demographic. Each of these transitions offers significant opportunities if properly managed. For instance, the demographic transition could serve as a powerful engine of growth through a dynamic labor force, while the energy transition creates opportunities to establish green energy corridors that align with global sustainability goals.

Infrastructure Diplomacy: a new, more sophisticated form of scramble for Africa?

Monday, 22 September 2025 07:30

Infrastructure development has, in recent years, shifted from being primarily an area of cooperation to becoming a central arena of geopolitical competition. Major global powers are advancing large-scale initiatives that blend investment with diplomacy. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the EU's Global Gateway exemplify this trend, alongside the U.S. Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and Japan's Quality Infrastructure Initiative (QII). All these frameworks are more than financing tools: they are instruments of infrastructure diplomacy designed to advance strategic interests and project influence in Africa.

AfCFTA: African dream or nightmare?

Thursday, 18 September 2025 13:40

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been widely heralded as a flagship initiative of the African Union’s Agenda 2063, designed to expand intra-African trade, drive industrialisation, and stimulate economic growth through market integration. A recent critique published by Bilaterals, however, casts doubt on the agreement’s ability to achieve these ambitions. The article argues that, although the AfCFTA originates from good (African) intentions, its negotiation, financing, and operational structures have been shaped to a considerable extent by external actors, including major foreign economic blocs and multilateral organisations. The technical support provided by these actors is depicted as a disguised effort to advance their own economic and geopolitical interests at the expense of Africa’s industrial development. Moreover, conditional funding and the promotion of regulatory norms aligned with Global North standards, it claims, risk perpetuating dependency and entrenching Africa’s subordinate role in the global economy.

News

AfCFTA Preachers and the Gospel of Free Trade

The Global Order Is Changing: Who Will Lead and Who Will Follow?

Can a Project-Based Approach Unlock Africa’s Development and Integration?

Infrastructure Diplomacy: a new, more sophisticated form of scramble for Africa?

AfCFTA: African dream or nightmare?

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