At the Djibouti Investment Forum in April this year, we highlighted an emerging trend: economies in the Global North are strategically reorienting their trade and supply chain links toward the Global South. This shift is driven by both economic and geopolitical considerations, aiming to reduce dependence on a limited number of major partners, particularly the United States, following recent increases in tariffs on imports from third countries. While our theory has been initially debated, this trend has now become increasingly evident. However, this reorientation is also a source of risks for the Global South. While Northern economies seek secure access to essential raw materials and energy critical for their green and digital transitions, poorly structured trade agreements can reinforce asymmetric dependencies. In such scenarios, countries in the Global South could continue to supply raw materials while receiving limited opportunities for high-value manufacturing or technological investment, becoming the sacrificial lambs of these shifts.








