Sabato, Gennaio 24, 2026
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Desiderio Consultants Ltd. è una think tank e una rete di consulenti indipendenti esperti in sviluppo internazionale. Siamo specializzati nella promozione e orientamento delle politiche doganali, commerciali e dei trasporti nei paesi africani. Il nostro obiettivo è promuovere riforme politiche e normative che migliorino l'integrazione regionale e rafforzino la partecipazione dell'Africa alle catene di valore regionali e globali.

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The Global Order Is Changing: Who Will Lead and Who Will Follow?

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At the Djibouti Investment Forum in April this year, we highlighted an emerging trend: economies in the Global North are strategically reorienting their trade and supply chain links toward the Global South. This shift is driven by both economic and geopolitical considerations, aiming to reduce dependence on a limited number of major partners, particularly the United States, following recent increases in tariffs on imports from third countries. While our theory has been initially debated, this trend has now become increasingly evident. However, this reorientation is also a source of risks for the Global South. While Northern economies seek secure access to essential raw materials and energy critical for their green and digital transitions, poorly structured trade agreements can reinforce asymmetric dependencies. In such scenarios, countries in the Global South could continue to supply raw materials while receiving limited opportunities for high-value manufacturing or technological investment, becoming the sacrificial lambs of these shifts.

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Can a Project-Based Approach Unlock Africa’s Development and Integration?

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A recent study published by the Policy Centre for the New South underscores the urgent need for Africa to move beyond traditional development models and instead harness its strategic assets to drive growth. The study highlighs that due to persistent structural vulnerabilities and a decline in international aid flows Africa is not on track to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) or the objectives outlined in Agenda 2063. In response, the author calls for a profound rethinking of development strategies, emphasizing that Africa’s growth should capitalize on three transformative transitions: digital, energy, and demographic. Each of these transitions offers significant opportunities if properly managed. For instance, the demographic transition could serve as a powerful engine of growth through a dynamic labor force, while the energy transition creates opportunities to establish green energy corridors that align with global sustainability goals.

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Infrastructure Diplomacy: a new, more sophisticated form of scramble for Africa?

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Infrastructure development has, in recent years, shifted from being primarily an area of cooperation to becoming a central arena of geopolitical competition. Major global powers are advancing large-scale initiatives that blend investment with diplomacy. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the EU's Global Gateway exemplify this trend, alongside the U.S. Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and Japan's Quality Infrastructure Initiative (QII). All these frameworks are more than financing tools: they are instruments of infrastructure diplomacy designed to advance strategic interests and project influence in Africa.

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AfCFTA: African dream or nightmare?

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The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been widely heralded as a flagship initiative of the African Union’s Agenda 2063, designed to expand intra-African trade, drive industrialisation, and stimulate economic growth through market integration. A recent critique published by Bilaterals, however, casts doubt on the agreement’s ability to achieve these ambitions. The article argues that, although the AfCFTA originates from good (African) intentions, its negotiation, financing, and operational structures have been shaped to a considerable extent by external actors, including major foreign economic blocs and multilateral organisations. The technical support provided by these actors is depicted as a disguised effort to advance their own economic and geopolitical interests at the expense of Africa’s industrial development. Moreover, conditional funding and the promotion of regulatory norms aligned with Global North standards, it claims, risk perpetuating dependency and entrenching Africa’s subordinate role in the global economy.

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The Attempt of African Ports to Position Themselves Amid Global Trade Shifts and the Expected Growth in Intra-African Traffic

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African ports are increasingly seeking to enhance their role in global shipping networks, driven both by shifts in international trade and the anticipated growth in intra-African traffic following the operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Although trade frictions, rising tariffs and increasing trade policy uncertainty between major Northern Hemisphere economies (particularly the EU and the United States) may encourage the redirection of some trade toward Southern Hemisphere markets, African ports’ ability to capture these flows is not guaranteed.

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